I just asked three people in my office: what's the first word that comes to mind when you think of the country Colombia?
Two answered "drugs." One was more specific and said "cocaine."
I expected at least one of them to say coffee. Nope. People associate Colombia with drugs. And where there are drugs, there are crime, violence, and corruption.
Above all else, there's one man to thank for Colombia's negative reputation: Pablo Escobar, the infamous Colombian cocaine kingpin. Not only was Escobar a ruthless drug lord, he was probably the most successful drug businessman in history, amassing an estimated fortune of $24 billion at the peak of his empire. In the mid-80s, Forbes ranked Escobaras the seventh-richest man in the world.
He achieved those heights by using an unprecedented mixture of business acumen and brutality to force his would-be rivals to fall into line. His famous "plata o plomo" strategy – which translates to "silver or lead"– remains a critical component of his legacy: Escobar would first grease any problematic palms with a bribe. If a subject were foolish enough to reject the bribe, Escobar would stop playing nice and give him some lead instead – in the form of a bullet to the head.
To be fair, by some accounts, Escobar wasn't a bad guy. He used his cocaine profits to build schools, churches, and housing for poverty-stricken Colombians. Escobar thought of himself as a modern-day Robin Hood. Many of his beneficiaries concurred, and repaid his kindness by looking the other way when he was doing something illegal – which was almost all of the time.
Regardless, Escobar was a violent, merciless man, even by drug-lord standards. And as my nonscientific survey above shows, his legacy still dominates Colombia's reputation today.
There's only one problem: the Colombia of today is nothing like it was back then.
The country has improved immensely since Escobar's death nearly twenty years ago. Thanks in part to a $7.5-billion, US-backed effort to crack down on narcotics, Colombia is no longer the world's top cocaine producer. Both Peru and Bolivia overtook it in 2012. And from 2001-2012, potential Colombian cocaine production decreased by a whopping 72%. Not surprisingly, drug related crime plummeted, too.
Noting the dismal failure of the US's own war on drugs, it's almost hard to believe that Colombia's government has been so successful in its efforts. Yet the figures are there for all to see – from 2011 to 2012 alone, Colombian cocaine output fell another 25%.
Meanwhile, Colombia's economy has prospered: GDP growth has been strong; the average Colombian's income has doubled in less than a decade; and BusinessWeek even called Colombia "the most extreme emerging market on Earth" in 2007.
One Colombian city in particular – Medellín, which coincidentally is both where Escobar's cartel was based and where he was shot dead – is flourishing. The financial services and food products industries in particular are booming, and multinational companies are even opening offices in Medellín –Hewlett-Packard just opened a campus there in 2012.
And the residential neighborhoods are keeping pace, too – they're dotted with cafés and restaurants that would rival those in European cities.
As should be clear by now, there's a stark contrast between the perception of Colombia and its reality. While the country isn't perfect and drugs are still a problem, they are only a fraction of the problem they were 20 years ago. Though few are talking about it, Colombia is up and coming.
I'll let *Ronan McMahon, *who recently visited Colombia, take it from here. Ronan is Bill Bonner's international real estate advisor – he travels the world evaluating real estate investment opportunities. As you'll read, he believes that progress has outpaced prices in Colombia, and as a result, there are attractive real estate opportunities there if you know where to look.
Of course, there are good reasons to own foreign real estate beyond a particular parcel's investment merits. As governments of the world continue their march toward full-blown fascism, having an emergency "bolt hole" outside your home country is growing in importance. Owning foreign real estate also offers unique diversification benefits – for instance, it can shorten your path to residency or facilitate opening a foreign financial account. International Man recently covered those and other benefits of owning foreign real estate.
The article below originally appeared in the Bonner Family Office's premium June 2013 investment newsletter, which is dedicated to uncovering investment opportunities and sharing strategies to build and maintain family wealth. My thanks to them for allowing me to share this article with you.
Enjoy, and see you next week.
Dan Steinhart
Managing Editor of The Casey Report
*100% Gains for Patient Investors in Colombia's Second-Largest City*
By Ronan McMahon, Real Estate Strategic Partner, Bonner Family Office
Overseas real estate continues to be one of the Bonner family's favorite investments. Bill owns properties in Argentina, France, Ireland, Nicaragua, and the US. Real estate is relatively illiquid – you can't trade in and out of it easily. But as long-term investors, that can be an advantage. It keeps us from shifting in and out of investments too frequently.
Bill has tasked me with scouting the best overseas real estate opportunities and reporting back to him – and you. Following a recent scouting trip to Colombia, I want to put Medellín on your radar.
Medellín, Colombia's second-largest city, is a beautiful city of 2.5 million people (3.5 million, if you include the outer valleys). At 5,000 feet elevation, the weather is perfect. Most days have sunshine and temperatures in the 70s. The modern apartment I rented for my last trip didn't need air conditioning or bug screens on the windows.
Medellín: rental yields of up to 8%.
The leafy neighborhood of El Poblado is a great place to sip coffee or enjoy an evening meal in the shade next to one of the many streams that gurgle down the hillside. Much of my scouting was on foot. In this area, almost everything is a pleasant stroll away. The locals are warm, welcoming, friendly, and honest. They are happy that foreigners are beginning to visit their country. They are aware that, for many, Medellín's reputation is still one of out-of-control drug cartels. The reality I found was very different.
Today, you can buy for as little as $100 per square foot. You'll do well to find a city condo priced this low anywhere else. (Maybe in Ecuador, which has the lowest-priced real estate on my beat.) And you can generate rental yields of up to 8% or more. If you are looking for a family stronghold in a growing economy with a perfect year-round climate, Medellín is worth a visit.
Longtime readers of my real estate investment letter, Real Estate Trend Alert, will know that we did well in northeast Brazil as the country's middle class grew. New middle-class Brazilians now buy condos and drink lattes in newly opened cafés. Owning the real estate that members of a new middle class want to buy or rent is one of our central strategies at Real Estate Trend Alert. It is also a strategy pursued by many of the world's most successful multigenerational families.
-*Colombia – Like Brazil a Decade Ago*-
I've spend the last year making contact, picking brains, and analyzing the numbers. I have now formed a clear view. And it's one of a bright future for Colombia. One of a pathway (which will certainly include some bumps) to relative prosperity.
The income of the average Colombian has doubled in less than a decade. Shiny new boutiques and restaurants line Medellín's "Golden Mile" in the El Poblado neighborhood. Roads are tightly packed with cars – many new.
Roughly 40% of Colombia's population is under 20. They are full of buzz and optimism. Many of their older siblings and cousins who left in the 1990s are returning... bringing with them the skills they learned on Wall Street. Canadian resource and European manufacturing companies are setting up offices in the city as well. Expat hangouts are packed with Canadian and European resource contractors.
On Wall Street, they call Colombia "the next Brazil"– with good cause. Demographics are in its favor. The country is rich in gold, oil, and hydroelectric power. It is a big coffee producer. Debt levels are low, and after two decades of economic reforms, the government is one of the most forward and outward looking in the region.
"We don't expropriate," President Juan Manuel Santos told a group of Spanish businessmen who arrived shortly after Argentina's President Kirchner took control of oil company YPF. Wealthy Venezuelans are flooding into the country, also bringing oil expertise. GDP growth is running at 6%. Inflation is 3.4%.
An ambitious $100 billion infrastructure plan is in the works. It includes new roads and airports… as well as even an $8 billion Chinese-funded railway that will compete with the Panama Canal. The Chinese want to get Colombian coal out without having to incur hefty tolls in Panama.
Meanwhile, a government program calls for 200,000 new middle-class houses. The government is focused on initiatives to improve social mobility. (The lack of social mobility has historically been one of the major growth constraints in emerging countries.)
-*The **Colombian Comeback*-
Colombia's middle class is on the up. Property prices, which can be as low as $100,000 for a 1,000-square-foot condo, reflect Medellín's past, not its future potential. (Note that real estate here sells in Colombian pesos, so international investors are also getting diversification from their home currency.)
A number of multinationals, such as Hewlett-Packard, are making Medellín their home. Domestic Medellín-based multinationals are strong in cement, financial services, and food products. The action for big oil and banking is in Bogotá – a city already bursting with traffic jams and choking in smog. (It's getting expensive, too.)
I believe the best opportunities are to be found in Medellín, but confidence is everywhere in Colombia. When I visited Santa Marta and neighboring resort towns, condo buildings were shooting up on beachfront plots. They were selling fast, too, long before the buildings were finished.
These aren't cheap. A decent condo with a view could set you back $300,000. The buyers are Colombians living either in Medellín and Bogotá or abroad in the US and Europe. Five years ago, they would have bought condos in Miami or Panama. Now they have the confidence and comfort to invest themselves and their money in their home country.
This is an amazing story, and one that goes beyond the real estate market. Fifteen years ago, Colombia was almost jungle. They battled the army and paramilitaries. Drug cartels ran many of the big cities. Fast-forward to 2013, and you have what many are calling the "Colombian comeback": the big shift from almost-failed state to emerging global player.
Colombia: a country on the up.
This hasn’t happened overnight. Nor is Colombia rid of the security issues that maimed and killed people, and ripped its economy apart. If you are trying to pipe oil hundreds of miles through jungle or prospect for gold in remote areas, surrounded by armed guerrillas and gangs who are politically or profit motivated, the threats are clear.
Don't expect Colombia's progress to be without disturbance. Scary pictures will flash across your TV screens from time to time.*But it's precisely because the situation isn't perfect that we have this opportunity to buy low and sell high.*
Again: Colombia is on the up. Its citizens are already enjoying a peace dividend. They won't easily hand that back. The fighters and revolutionaries are old and tired. If Colombia comes close to reaching its potential, it will live up to its mantra as "the next Brazil," where real estate values rose by up to 20% year after year after year.
-*H**o**w to Profit*-
It's hard to believe after spending time there, but for much of the last three decades, this city – which spreads along the Aburrá Valley in the Andes – had a reputation as being the world's murder capital.
A notorious drug cartel was based here. Headed up by the infamous Pablo Escobar, the Medellín cartel blew up shopping malls and even passenger airplanes with impunity. I want to be clear: That reputation couldn't be further from what I found on my recent scouting trip.
There's a real café culture here, like you'll find in any leafy European city. But here you get to sip your coffee or dine outside year-round. Scorching summer heat or cool winters won't cramp your style, since the perfect weather varies by only one degree all year. You'll find great restaurants, trendy bars, and fancy boutiques.
Minutes away from El Poblado is the so-called "Golden Mile" of banks, offices, boutiques, and outdoor eateries buzzing with traffic and commerce. On weekends, the nightlife is in Parque Lleras in the Zona Rosa. This area of Medellín is the place to be – and to invest.
Older condos in good buildings sell for $100 per square foot. Pre-construction condos sell for $200 per square foot and above. This is a crazy anomaly that you can exploit. Pre-construction is dramatically overpriced, relative to older apartments. Figure $150 per square foot for a new condo in a high-end building that was delivered within the past couple of years.
Of course, it's important to understand the dynamic and regulations of the rental market. It's illegal to rent your unit short term (less than one month) if 70% of owners in the building haven't agreed to this. So you'll find that short-term rentals aren't permitted in the nicer owner-occupied buildings.
But these are still the best buildings to buy in. They are the best maintained and the quietest. That means they are the type of building the new upper-middle class will want to buy or rent. You could net a yield of 8% by renting to a visiting executive from abroad for a few months at a time. There's a constant flow of renters and agents who specialize in this market. Sign a yearlong contract with a local, and your yield will be a bit less.
At $100,000 for a 1,000-square-foot condo in a high-end area of a desirable city with a fast-growing middle class, prices are seriously low. If Colombia stays on its course to normalization and beyond, it's reasonable to expect that over the next decade prices will move toward current preconstruction pricing in the $200-per-square-foot range. That's a 100% rise from current levels. And each year while you wait, you could bag an 8% yield.
A doubling of your investment in a decade. And pocketing 8% each year in income. If this plays out, you'll do well. Very well.
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Ronan is an international real estate adviser to Bill Bonner. Speaking of Bill, he recently launched a brand new e-letter called Bill Bonner's Diary of a Rogue Economist, which we highly recommend. You can sign up for free right here.
[Editor's note: If you would like to find out more about how to profit from overseas real estate opportunities, you can become a member of Ronan's Real Estate Trend Alert service.]
Reported by Proactive Investors 3 days ago.